Peering through the shroud

After this week's bad news about the GACP layoffs and Ooligan's uncertain book distribution channels, it is difficult to see past the next few months and the critical launches that are in jeopardy. I think Oregon at Work and A Heart For Any Fate should be the turning point for Ooligan's future as a viable press, but this turn of events is another huge roadblock to our success.

Maybe the layers of middle men and markups is part of the reason the industry is falling apart. It has gotten too bloated and slow and unresponsive to survive. Maybe the industry is going through a necessary shedding of excess that will bottom out, leaving a core ready to be rebuilt by a new generation of publishers.

As Jeffrey Selin of the Writers' Dojo said, there will always be a market for stories—people are consuming more content than ever before. We just don't know what the format will be.

I love Brent's imagined 100mile Law, where a future Congress has limited the production and transport of books to a 100-mile radius. You don't have to look much further than the trend toward buying local, sustainable food to see that the idea could spread to other industries as the world's resources become more expensive and scarce.

I'm rooting for small, independent publishers to take over the industry. Behemoth corporations cannot respond to rapid changes in today's marketplace—there are too many layers. Instead, smaller publishers can focus on regional titles and roll out nationally as word of mouth (online interest) spreads. Books will be printed in smaller quantities, producing less waste.

There's every reason to expect improvements in book production—it's already happening with POD and digital short-run. I don't believe the physical book will ever be replaced by a digital format—humans are collectors and like to be surrounded by their treasure. But I can imagine books being printed with nonpolluting, sustainable materials that eliminate much of the toxins from production. And as the printing industry also becomes more nimble and compact, printing will be done locally instead of being shipped around the world.

In ten years, writers will still be slaving over stories, and people will clamor for them whether they are presented in book form or on the screen. I would like to see a huge network of small publishers delivering those books to the public in a responsible, efficient way. And I hope that great writing will always find its audience. I believe that it will.